Friday June 16, 2017 (after close)
This coming week could see little or no dramatic activity in the BROAD MARKETS. The FED rate hike announcement has been mostly priced out of the market going into the close on Friday. On Sunday mornings, I get an e-mail with the Economic Calendar for the week ahead, but I haven't received it yet. I will post any news worthy info here when it comes in. Otherwise, we are tied to Geo-Political activity as a catalyst to anything pushing the markets one way or the other.
We are also in the throws of the summer slow time for the MARKETS, historically less trading volume and volatility...
Friday June 9, 2017 (after close)
The UK elections shook up their currency, which caused a ripple effect in BROAD MARKETS around the world. But they seemed to be headed for a bounce, at least with the US markets. It will be interesting to see how things shake out going into the Forex Markets starting Sunday 5 pm when that market opens again. The Comey / Trump drama seemed to be ignored or at least did not have the impact that the traders were anticipating. The Friday NASDAQ having such a strong pull-back is a bit concerning. In fact it crossed over our indicators. If the S&P does the same on Monday, we could be in for a BIG pull back this coming week. The FED announcement on Wednesday was lost in the other headlines. The banks closed higher going into the end of the week, so maybe the focus will be back on them for a while.
Friday June 2, 2017 (after close)
The RETAIL sector is still suffering (as noted from May 12 below). This week was another down week for the sector. OIL continues the volatile action. Its likely to move higher going into the end of the year, but choppy because of OPEC and the US RIG COUNT is still climbing week after week. FED RATE HIKES should help boost the banking sector. Although, they nearly all had stellar profits in the second quarter. Surprisingly that sector didn't 'jump up' like most analysts expected. Most likely we are waiting to see what President Trump does with taxes and banking regulation (as he has promised).
Friday May 12, 2017 (after close)
As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, we could have this trend of 'tired markets' continue for a few weeks. Earnings season is winding down. Retail took a big hit this past week. We could see further fallout as 'brick and mortar' stores are being hurt by big ONLINE RETAILERS like Amazon (AMZN). Wal-Mart has been doing well, but they too got caught in the wake of the downturn for retail stocks. OIL had a good week as more OPEC talk still contain the words 'decreased production'. The Baker-Hughes Rig count has been climbing since Jan 1, but that too was shrugged off this week. There were elections in France and South Korea the past 2 weeks and we may see more GEO-POLITICAL reaction with that soon too. GOLD turned higher and that adds to the signals of lower BROAD MARKETS.
Friday May 5, 2017 (after close)
Earnings are still coming in mixed, but many sectors are showing positive growth. GOLD has been slumping, this usually means there is less concern for the 'defensive' trade. But once we see GOLD making a turn, it may be time for also being defensive. OIL doesn't seem to have a specific direction. Its up for a couple days then back down again below $49 a barrel. GEO-POLITICAL concerns are still something to keep an eye on. North Korea, South Korea, France and Great Britain are all in the news.
Friday April 28, 2017 (after close)
Friday closed out the week a little 'soft' but it was a GAIN for the BROAD MARKETS for the week. Many TECH companies reported good earnings. The reaction to AAPL earnings were mixed, but the stock resumed its climb as investors hope for more growth and profits for the tech giant. GEO POLITICAL reaction has been moving the DOLLAR around quite a bit in both EUROPE and ASIA. For now, traders are waiting for ECONOMIC reports to confirm expansion of the economy before making a move. For now, we could be in for some side-ways movement or there may be some profit taking as the experts feel the MARKETS are getting 'tired'.
Friday April 21, 2017 (after close)
Great Britain announced a June election. This made the currency markets oscillate a bit. There has been 'pressure' on the US Dollar ever since President Trump made the statement that the Dollar is too strong. France is having an election as well. ISIS took blame for the Paris terror attack. The EARNINGS SEASON is now in full swing. The BANKING stocks have mostly announced BETTER than expected profits. The only BAD announcement has been Goldman Sachs (GS). This sent the DOW down 100 points on TUESDAY. We have yet to hear from RETAIL and TECH companies, expected in the coming 2 weeks. This will likely set the tone for the MARKETS over the near term. We are also expecting a HUGE tax legislation bill to hit Congress this coming week. This too could boost (or sink) the MARKETS.
Friday April 7, 2017 (after close)
The EARNINGS have kicked off with STRONG numbers from the BANK sector. With the recent FED talk of additional 'tightening' we could see a BULL RUN on the XLF and individual banking stocks. The big concern will be the global jitters in relation to N. Korea, the MOAB bomb dropped on Afghanistan, and the ongoing US-Syria US-Russia tensions. This could be bad for high-beta stocks, but good for OIL, GOLD and other 'safe-haven' investments (including bonds).
Friday April 7, 2017 (after close)
We could see the MARKETS gain more momentum if there is good news regarding pending TAX regulations and if the EARNINGS reports are better than anticipated. We will also get more input from the FED concerning interest rate talks in the next week or two.
If there is additional 'back and forth' with Syria and Russia, we could see some serious pressure on the MARKETS for the short term. The FRIDAY Jobs number was about HALF of the anticipated number. This was likely why STOCKS were flat for most of the day.
Friday March 31, 2017 (after close)
Anticipation leading up to Earnings will likely dominate how traders look at the Markets in the next 2 weeks. As mentioned on the Main Page, President Trump's tax reform agenda and other ways to boost the economy (and his campaign promise to 'Make America Great Again') could propel the MARKETS higher still. Several FED members spoke last week, confident that addition Rate Hikes would be necessary to keep INFLATION in check.
Friday March 24, 2017 (after close)
We could see a weak start to the last week of the month (and Quarter). The focus will shift from the 'failed' attempt to push a replacement Health Care program through Congress to President Trump's next item on his agenda: Tax Reform.
Friday March 17, 2017 (after close)
Looking ahead to the next couple of weeks, we are likely to see the WORLD markets react to the US RATE HIKE announcement. This usually has a delayed and somewhat ripple effect over several trading sessions. There will also be concerns over the back-and-forth with President Trumps 'travel ban' and the countries that are directly AND indirectly affected. Although there are also some things brewing with regards to North Korea. We did have comments about future trade discussions between the US and China. Other countries may also chime in on these discussions. Then we will wrap up another quarter in about 2 weeks, which will begin the wave of earnings announcements. The First Quarter results often set the tone for the spring and summer trading volume. We could see more push to higher highs, if earnings and subsequent economic news are positive.
Friday March 10, 2017 (after close)
The FED meeting and 2pm news release on Wednesday March 15 will be a primary catalyst for market movement for the coming week. There is also the chance for reaction to anything that comes from Washington D.C. either directly from President Trump or from Congress.
Friday March 3, 2017 (after close)
The FED again made several remarks this week that a RATE HIKE is likely as early as this month. That seemed to be the 'dampening' factor that we saw in Thursday and Friday's trading. We may see some carry over this next week as WORLD MARKETS have their reaction to these comments. Some key economic numbers were better than expected and so was the number of UNEMPLOYMENT claims this past week. Looking ahead, the MARKETS will rely on more good numbers and reaction to WASHINGTON and President Trump.
Friday February 24, 2017 (after close)
The FED had some input to the mood of the MARKET this week. Their 'words' may keep the continuing RALLY in check for the short term. The January home sales number was quite a bit lower than analysts had anticipated (likely due to the winter storms that plagued the Northeast and Midwest). Consumer sentiment rose to 96.3 (higher than anticipated). The Friday morning DOW Futures were down 100 points before the open. This was carry-over from International Markets and their concern over US Trade policies and how it could impact the global markets.
Looking to the week ahead, President Trump is scheduled to speak to Congress Tuesday evening. We could also see more global reaction to anything trade related that he says. We saw GOLD move above the highs of earlier this month. Oil is still in a tight trading range and has been for nearly 3 months. The VIX has also been very flat for many weeks. But as a side note, it has closed ABOVE the 10 Day Moving Average for the last 7 trading days. This reflects the 'caution' that is on the minds of traders.
Friday February 17, 2017 (after close)
The Friday fade is being blamed on the looming French elections. There were a few things coming from Washington that may have added to the slight 'pause' in the markets on Friday... Asia started things off in the early morning hours and that seemed to set the tone for Europe and the US. The unemployment number was better-than-expected. Housing starts were DOWN... But we need MORE good economic numbers to keep the rally moving forward.
Friday February 10, 2017 (after close)
Next week we will see some activity and 'word' from the FED on monetary policy. We are about done with EARNINGS. There are not too many other factors pending to shape the direction (or change of direction) for the MARKETS.
Friday February 3, 2017 (after close)
The earnings season is winding down. We will have a few more companies reporting in the next couple weeks. Some of the catalyst on the horizon will be economic reports (like Jobs and Unemployment). And we will see how activities in Washington D.C. continue to influence both international and domestic MARKETS. Because of the uncertainties, we are seeing GOLD continue to move higher week after week. This could continue for a while. We will also watch OIL as it has the potential to continue higher if the broad markets continue higher.
Friday January 27, 2017 (after close)
Earnings are still in focus for a couple more weeks. AAPL will be a BIG one we will be watching on Tuesday. TSLA reports in a couple more weeks, and they are most likely going to SURPRISE the street. Last report was a surprise PROFIT, their first one. The TRUMP effect is likely to push the DOW higher after a brief 'psychological' consolidation period after breaching the 20,000 mark on the DOW.
Friday January 20, 2017 (after close)
The EARNINGS announcements are front and center for the next couple of weeks. So far, MOST companies have reported BETTER than expected numbers. As for the 'Trump Effect', many Wall Street people are now predicting a continued BULL MARKET thru 2017. Some of the 'caveats' include the tax reforms efforts and the speed at which the President can get congress to work together to enact them. Other factors that could put the 'brakes' on things would be Geo-Political events. There didn't seem to be much reaction in the Markets from the protests during the inauguration on Friday.
Friday January 13, 2017 (before close)
We are getting GOOD earnings reports from the Banks, but there are still some Trump dynamics going on. For instance, this last week, the BioTech companies reacted negatively to the President Elect's words. For next week the earnings will most likely be the main factor moving the MARKETS. Then there are traders that are getting DEFENSIVE with positioning going into the inauguration. Primarily, they are using GOLD as their hedging strategy.
Friday January 6, 2017 (after close)
We made it through the mid-week Fed minutes with no adverse effects to the broad markets. There is still some volatility in the currency markets, a sort of 'settling out' you may call it. We are about to enter into a new EARNINGS season and we are already seeing activity with retailers like Macy's (M). They have announced a major store closing plan. Meanwhile, online retailers like Amazon (AMZN) continue to climb back to their all-time high stock prices. As I mentioned on the main page, there is skepticism with some traders and analysts about the likelihood of this BULL MARKET continuing its forward march. Our indicators show a potential pull back in the week ahead. There is also the possibility of a 'black swan' event that could spook the markets...
Friday December 30, 2016 (after close)
We did have a few 'international' news worthy events this week. The big one being the accusation and sanctions against alleged Russian hacking of the US election network. We had several start-and-stop runs for the 20,000 mark in the DOW. But each day ended lower as the week wore on. Economic reports were mostly in-line with the analysts expectations, so the MARKET didn't have enough positive or negative bias to make a major move. And, again, the volume of trading continued to be light because of the short / holiday trading schedule. This could hold out to be true again next week too (at least for the first couple days).
Friday December 23, 2016 (after close)
We expect another week of little action or reaction in the domestic markets. There could be some activity in the INTERNATIONAL markets, but volumes will likely be anemic until after the first of 2017. We have yet to see some reaction to the FED rate hike. Last year, it took a couple weeks to sink in. This year it is concurrent with the inaugural of a new president. We will watch for signals to hedge for the next wave of 'inevitable' volatility.
Friday December 16, 2016 (after close)
his coming week will likely see some additional pull-backs, as we wind down the month and the year. Many traders will be ready to close out positions and head out for holidays. Trading volume historically begins to get lighter as we get closer to the holidays. We will also see International MARKETS begin to 'digest' the implications of the announced RATE HIKE as well as the FED's language about subsequent rate hikes as announced on Wednesday. The DOLLAR continues to strengthen and GOLD continues to weaken. OIL is likely to continue its slow climb as 2017 begins.
Friday December 9, 2016 (after close)
We did see the Unemployment Claims number come in exactly as expected. There is still the FED December rate hike expected to be announced as early as next week. Some analyst don't think there will be much reaction to their meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Oil has had a good run for the last 2 weeks. Although it gave back some gains early in the week, Friday saw it settle at $51.50 a barrel. This was 'capped' by the surging US Dollar. The VIX peaked out on Thursday at 13.28 but settled at 11.75 on Friday's close. If anything spooks the MARKET this coming week, we could see a sudden spike in the VIX. But for now, the RALLY is likely to continue as we approach DOW 20,000.
Friday December 2, 2016 (after close)
The FED rate hike will likely be the focus of the MARKETS this coming week. OIL was ignited (pun intended) by hopes of Saudi cuts in production. But, if history repeats itself, we will see some of the gains reversed in the coming week. Traders are also watching the interaction between President Elect Donald Trump and international trade partners as well as his efforts to keep large corporations from exporting jobs to foreign countries. We still have a good chance of an year-end rally which happens more often than not.
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